In this week’s AIRmail newsletter, The Outer Line takes an in-depth look at trending cycling news: Year-end review… the dominance of Pogačar and Team UAE, evolving race strategy, women’s racing booms, economic and governance challenges, doping in sport, rising athlete power…
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
Key Takeaways:
- A Look Back at the Major Trends and Developments of 2024
- A Year Dominated by One Rider and One Team
- On-Going Changes in the Competitive Nature of Cycling
- An Array Continuing Economic and Governance Challenges
- Doping Concerns Have Not Gone Away
- Bright Spots: Women’s Racing; Rising Athlete Power
Given the general lack of activity in professional road cycling during this time of year – and with the cycling media having little to focus on other than trifling changes to team jerseys or last-minute additions to second-tier teams – we thought this might be a good time to step back and take a quick review of the key trends and developments in the sport during 2024.
Tadej Pogačar – Historic performance
Seldom has there been a year in this sport that was so thoroughly dominated by a single rider and team. Tadej Pogačar turned in a truly historic performance – becoming only the third man in history to take cycling’s triple crown – the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France (including twelve individual stages along the way) and the World Championship title. In addition, he took two of cycling’s five one-day monument races – Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Lombardia (for the fourth time in a row). Pogačar’s dominance was the story of the year; nevertheless, he recently said that he hopes to improve in 2025. But, as we pointed out in an earlier edition, if we look at the end-of-year UCI Points team standings, his Team Emirates squad had an even more impressive showing. After narrowly topping Visma-Lease a Bike in 2023 to take the top spot in the UCI rankings for the first time, they blew second-place Visma out of the water in 2024, finishing just under 17,000 points ahead of them. Putting this dominance into perspective, the gulf between UAE and Visma is nearly the entire points total of third-place Soudal-QuickStep. On top of this points haul, UAE racked up a staggering 81 total victories, nearly doubling second-place Lidl-Trek’s 42. Even if Pogačar had failed to win a single race this season, the team still would have led in wins. This was a truly remarkable performance – highlighting the extraordinary depth of both its roster and virtually limitless financial backing.
Mathieu van der Poel and Alpecin controlled the early spring Classics
Pogačar was by no means the only story in men’s cycling this year; other mind-bending performances were delivered by other members of cycling’s dominant “Big Six” club. It’s easy to forget that Mathieu van der Poel and his Alpecin team controlled the early spring classics and seemed virtually unbeatable. And of course, there was Remco Evenepoel’s complete domination in the Olympic events – winning the time trial and road race by a large enough margin to engage in some crowd-pleasing theatrics at the end. Jonas Vingegaard came back from a life-threatening injury – that would have ended the careers of most riders – in just a few months to seriously challenge the unchallengeable Pogačar in the Tour, and seems set to do it again next year. In comparison, Primož Roglič had a down year, winning the Vuelta for the fourth time in a row, and the final member of the “club” – Wout Van Aert – was plagued by injuries but signed a lifetime contract to finish out his career at Visma-LAB. And 2024 was also the first year that a black African won a stage of the Tour de France – in fact, Eritrea’s Biniam Girmay, the only Black rider in the WorldTour, took three stages of the Tour as well as the coveted green jersey – another truly historic performance. As the last few years have shown – notwithstanding these dominant performances – nothing stays the same for long. The difference in win totals and team dominance between 2023 and 2024 was a complete reversal, and what actually happens in 2025 is anyone’s guess.
Remco Evenepoel’s complete domination in the Olympic road events
The year saw a few other emerging trends that will likely continue during the rapidly approaching 2025 season. The rise of ultra-elite superstar riders who possess the ability to break away with “hammer-blow” tactics – leaving their rivals physically hopeless and unable to counter, en route to winning the sport’s biggest one-day races – has completely changed the texture of the sport. As we have pointed out, all of the biggest major one-day races (monuments, Olympics and World Championships) over the last two seasons have been won by just four individuals (Pogačar, Van der Poel, Evenepoel and Jasper Philipsen). In all but one of these races (2024 Milano-Sanremo), the race was won after the eventual winner launched a solo attack. These attacks started from an average of 36 kilometers from the finish line for the key 2024 races; the strongest riders seem to be capitalizing on modern fueling techniques and nutrition products to maximize their physiological capabilities – getting so far out in front that they can simply dispense with the tactical cat-and-mouse games that used to define these events.
Jasper Philipsen was there for Alpecin-Deceuninck when Van der Poel wasn’t
And as the major one-day races have become the playthings of a handful of riders with allegedly superior genetics, the top-stage races are not far behind. Eight riders won the twenty biggest stage races over the last two seasons (the three Grand Tours plus the big seven one-week races) – a slight increase in diversity. However, the lack of team diversity – with those riders spread over just four elite teams (Visma, UAE, Redbull-Bora, and Ineos) – is the strongest indicator in 2024 for how much the variability in team budgets has allowed a handful of teams to accumulate the top stage racing talent. And this includes both the actual talent on the bike as well as the behind-the-scenes experts and staff – providing those top riders with superior training, nutrition, and racing technology. It remains to be seen what this increasingly “winner-takes-all” trend and environment implies for the sport’s middle and lower tiers. However, two concerns stand out: (1) will the racing become more predictable and less exciting in the future – if everyone knows that only one or two riders are likely to win; and (2) will mid and lower-level sponsors start to abandon the sport if they believe that top victories – or even any victories – are no longer within a reasonable investment commitment.
Women’s cycling – From strength to strength
Women’s cycling grew from strength to strength throughout 2024 – and the recently relaunched Women’s WorldTour gained popularity and major investment boosts that benefit the entire sport. From the springtime monuments to the WWT’s closing chapters in Switzerland and the Far East, increased team parity by way of talent distribution and emerging new professional stars made for exciting viewing for the cycling public. For purists, the tactical mastery at Flanders which yielded Elisa Balsamo victory, the grit of Marianne Vos to take a throwback win at Amstel Gold, and Kasia Niewiadoma’s heroic yellow jersey defense on the final day of the Tour de France Femmes each provided a memorable highlight. The SDWorx team was again the sport’s most dominant, and while star rider Demi Vollering had another fantastic season (unluckily missing out to Niewiadoma at the TdFF), World Champion Lotte Kopecky and Lorena Wiebes also had spectacular wins. Increased broadcast reach, which increases the value of sponsoring teams and securing riders, has led to sponsors entering the sport or renewing commitments, as evidenced by Vollering’s allegedly record high new 2025 contract with FDJ-Suez. The final stage duel at the TdFF between Vollering and Niewiadoma outperformed broadcast ratings for Pogačar’s final mountain stage win at the men’s Tour in key EU markets. Nonetheless, women’s racing lags far behind the men’s in broadcast hours and channel commitments – and we again ask if the sport’s greatest potential for increased fan growth is untapped – still hidden inside the 2025 WWT calendar.
UAE has the money
One could not escape the sport’s economic paradoxes in 2024, highlighted by sponsorship highs and industry lows. The costs to sponsor top teams, open road racing, and to pay seemingly ever-increasing rider salaries all rose significantly, contributing to a downturn in the quantity and quality of road races – at all levels and in all regions across the globe. Significant calendar contraction hit the U.S., U.K., and Colombia, and licensed ridership was likewise down. Growing budgetary disparities between a handful of the richest teams and the rest of the peloton has led to increasing calls for some sort of budget cap, or perhaps a performance-related points cap, as we proposed earlier this year. The ongoing bike industry depression – which has seen sales in nearly every bicycle and related hardgoods category drop significantly following the post-COVID forecasting debacles and supply chain busts – doesn’t bode well for the major brands as we head into 2025. Although there is no apparent shortage of major sponsors in the sport’s WT ranks at this time, once you get past the national or petrostate-bankrolled teams and a handful of wealthy private benefactors or “patrons,” there aren’t that many truly commercially-backed squads. Given the tenuous state of the bike industry – with open reporting of Trek’s distressed restructuring, supply chain issues at Specialized, a bitter C-suite reshuffle at Scott, and Pons Group closing a Cervelo factory, to cite a few examples – one wonders if even some pro team sponsorship arrangements could be on the chopping block if the sport’s fortunes don’t begin to turn around in 2025.
Less available cycling on TV
Another economic storyline and on-going transformation highlighted this year was the reshuffling of sports broadcast models – away from regionally-based approaches – which has presented pro cycling with several options for the future. In particular, the paid subscription models which today deliver the sport across several broadcast carriers – with escalating costs for full carriage of the sport’s most important races – became unsustainable as fans reduced their spending. Much like U.S. sports leagues – such as MLB and the NBA, which struggled to maintain subscription numbers and experienced reduced ratings – cycling may need to rebalance between free-to-air and subscriptions in the future. Simply put, free-to-air broadcasts are needed to bring fans into the sport, in parallel with paid subscriptions for premium content or certain race exclusives. If anything, 2024’s lax men’s racing viewership numbers is the strongest indicator yet that change is needed; but women’s racing – which posted spectacular race viewership figures all season – could help drive needed strategic changes.
Is the UCI doing enough?
The sport’s governance situation was addled by the ongoing controversy around race safety, a seeming tendency to focus more on minor rule enforcements, and the generally waning attention of UCI President David Lappartient as he overtly pursues the International Olympic Committee’s presidency. We have grown tired of reporting on the incidents and all-too-frequent tragedies of race safety over the last decade, and the fact that some of the most glaring and heartbreaking lapses have occurred in just the last 12 months should weigh heavily on the entirety of the sport’s ecosystem. Two racing deaths in two years at the Pro and WT level should have led to immediate shifts in priority, but not even the loss of promising junior Muriel Furrier – who died from a crash that went unnoticed during the UCI World Championships – seemed to really move the needle. On-going “meetings” and “proposals” have gone almost nowhere and are frankly a bit reminiscent of the jaded “hopes and prayers” response that mass shootings in the U.S. now routinely generate. The UCI’s transparent emasculation of the sport’s independent safety commission – by means of stripping its director of any real power – constituted two steps backward. One step back is that it potentially forces teams, race organizers, and rider associations to address safety on their own, thus further isolating safety blame further away from the UCI’s doorstep. And a second step back is that readily available technologies which could be safety game-changers seem to swirl around endlessly without much accountability, delaying any potentially real UCI action.
“teflon” Lappartient
The political skills of “teflon” Lappartient, who deftly maneuvered the UCI around its ownership of controversy-laden responsibilities like safety and anti-doping, have not gone unnoticed by the man he has hoped to impress the most – outgoing IOC President Thomas Bach. When he was focused on cycling, Lappartient spent much of 2024 positing great progress by the UCI in popularizing the activity – though without much substantive proof, despite some flashy looking reports. And more than once he has stuck his foot in the sport’s mouth by venting personal grievances against team owners, riders, and particularly journalists who may have questioned UCI policy proposals, unilateral rules changes or federation politics. While there have been some advances in the sport’s governance and competitive model in 2024 – particularly, growth of the Women’s WorldTour and continued support for international track racing – the glaring issue of race safety alone is enough to offset wistful talk of global success. Add to that the seeming lack of any strategy for monetizing the WorldTour, and accusations of favoritism towards ASO that constrain any type of positive calendar change. Despite his achievements over the past several years, the overall impression of Lappartient has become one of a political climber wearing too many hats in his efforts to bolster his IOC prospects in 2025. In the process, he has inadequately focused on the one job he needed to ace in 2024: leading global cycling forward.
Jonas Vingegaard made it back from his nearly career-ending wreck
Cycling’s integrity took some well-deserved heat in 2024 as two storylines within the sport played havoc with public perception of the performances of our best athletes. The first was spurred by the superhuman performances of Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard – Pogačar for his chase-defying breakaway victories in numerous races, and Vingegaard for his rapid turnaround from a nearly career-ending wreck in the spring to seriously challenge Pogacar at the Tour de France. Both riders had been lauded by their trainers and medical staff for having unique attributes and special abilities that set them apart from other “mortal” riders in the peloton, statements which seem to have been tamped back when both (among many other WT riders) were revealed to have controversially used carbon monoxide rebreathing equipment to potentially boost hematocrit as part of their race preparations.
EPO is still around, but what about CO treatments?
While not as overt as blood transfusions or EPO abuse, use of the CO equipment is at best skirting the established WADA code definition for a doping “method” – despite research showing that its marginal boost (under very specific training conditions) is inconsistent, and the fact the practice itself could literally kill the athlete if improperly administered. The whole episode gives pause to consider the phenomenon dismantling the upper echelons of marathon and distance running in World Athletics. The myth of the Kenyan super-athlete – a claim touted by trainers and athlete managers for nearly two decades to explain the superior endurance of East African athletes – was shattered after nearly three dozen runners including major marathon winners, and Olympic and world championship medalists tested positive for EPO and other PEDs during a prolonged targeted testing campaign by the International Testing Agency. In turn, this has led many in the sports science community to openly question what the ITA might find if it levied the same level of intelligence interception and targeted testing in pro cycling. Would CO treatments be a red herring, or a genuine concern? Given that the sport had a cluster of EPO positives at the tail end of the season, and one case of drug smuggling earlier in the year, renewed ITA attention might not be a bad idea, considering that Lappartient replaced cycling’s independent CADF testing body with the IOC’s ITA a few short years ago.
One study purported that use of ketones could actually increase natural EPO production
Dovetailing on the carbon monoxide controversy, pro cycling’s love affair with ketone supplements reached its “jump the shark” moment in 2024. One study purported that use of ketones could actually increase natural EPO production in the athlete, although if one read the entire paper, that claim required the athletes to ingest so much of the product as to be completely uneconomical for the slim boost it might provide (and potentially hazardous, considering the gastric distress large quantities notably cause). However, the only consistent trend among the many peer-reviewed ketone studies recently published has been its potential to preserve brain and cardiac function after injury and hypoxia – such as during a heart attack or stroke – or even to help treat Alzheimer’s disease. Again, the inconsistencies of the athlete-related studies lead to more questions than answers regarding use of the products. Is it a placebo? A marketing gimmick for a product no one really needs? Or like monoxide treatments, are ketones a red herring or a genuine concern?
The Chinese swimming controversy prior to the Paris Olympics
However, the storyline which defined doping and sporting integrity for 2024 was the Chinese swimming controversy prior to the Paris Olympics, the repercussions of which will continue to play out for years to come. The multiple positive tests, seemingly swept aside by WADA and World Aquatics, sparked an all-out political war between the sport’s global anti-doping authority and USADA, with both sides firing volleys directly at each other and neither yielding ground. WADA, via its relationship with the IOC, even suggested that the Salt Lake City Winter Games could be re-awarded as a potential consequence of USADA’s attacks and requests for accountability. This has the potential to affect cycling – all sports, really – because a lack of trust in the anti-doping system could erode the safeguards that are meant to prevent doping in the first place.
Mark Cavendish retired with his 35 Tour stage wins
A few notable characters exited the pro cycling scene this year, or at least said they were. Mark Cavendish, after finally breaking the Tour de France stage victory record, claimed the title of greatest sprinter ever and apparently retired for good. Other notable retirements included the Norwegian Edvald Boasson Hägen and breakaway specialist Thomas De Gendt. On the other side of the ledger, former women’s star Anna Van der Breggen announced a return to racing after three years as a sports director at SD Worx-Protime, returning to the team to perhaps take back her GC role – and its lucrative financial opportunities – from the team’s departing star Demi Vollering. And just a few days ago, and perhaps most surprisingly, long-time Quick-Step boss Patrick Lefevere announced that he was standing down. Long one of the most outspoken and controversial managers in the sport, he was undeniably also one of the most successful, racking up almost 1,000 WT wins during his quarter century at the helm, including 22 monuments. The sport will definitely be a less colorful place without him.
The NCAA “feeder system”
Another important storyline adjacent to pro cycling has been the rise in athlete power to change global sporting economics. The rise of Name/Image/Likeness agreements to pay “amateur” elite athletes what they are worth in relation to sport monetization has the potential to upend the Olympic model. A parallel set of legal cases which paved the way for NIL has also led to the House vs. NCAA settlement, in which athletes competing for their universities will be treated as employees instead of students in the future – a move which entitles them to a share of the schools’ sports-related revenues deriving from broadcast, ticket and merchandising sales. The NCAA, up until this point, has been the literal “feeder system” of elite athletes into some of the IOC’s most lucrative broadcast-ready sports, including track and field and gymnastics. It may now be inevitable that athletes line up to challenge and potentially break through the IOC’s “autonomy of sport” shield in time for the next Summer Games in Los Angeles.
Merry Christmas
We end the year by saying thank you to all of our readers of The Outer Line and wishing everyone happy holidays. We will be back in touch early in the new year. And best wishes for 2025!
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
The post Year-End Review, Pogačar and UAE Dominance, Race Strategy, Women’s Racing Booms, Doping & Rising Athlete Power appeared first on PezCycling News.
