
The 2025 Tour de France promises a showdown unlike any other, with cycling’s modern “Big Four”—Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and Mathieu van der Poel—ready to battle across three weeks of varied terrain, brutal mountains, and tactical sprints. From a flat and wind-swept opening week through northern France to epic summit finishes in the Pyrenees and Alps—including icons like the Tourmalet, Hautacam, and Mont Ventoux—this year’s Tour is designed to test every rider’s limits. Who will crack first, and who will wear yellow in Paris? Here’s your full preview of the contenders, and what to expect on the road to the Champs-Élysées.
**See our 2025 Tour de France Stage by Stage Route Guide here.**
There was a telling moment at the end of Stage One of the soon-to-be-renamed Critèrium du Dauphinè, with only a few kilometers left in a stage seemingly destined for the sprinters, when Jonas Vingegaard, twirling his – allegedly – 160mm cranks to their limit, blasted off the front with such force that only Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel, with a Santiago Buitrago hanging on for dear life, could follow. Remco Evenepoel then bridged from the bunch at an impossible speed, joining them for a display of sheer collective force.
And there you have it: the difference between the four great stars of today’s cycling and everyone else. It’s their ability to find the extra gear, to create that surge of power, find that speed that no one else can do. Whether it’s Remco shot like a bullet at the time trials, or VdP marauding through the wind, or Jonas in the mountains and of course Pogi on any terrain, these four are a substantial cut above everyone else and following them through these next three weeks of adventure is going to prove fascinating.
This throwback Tour, completely contained in France, starting in the cycling-mad north next to their even madder Belgian cousins, begins with 10-days of flat(ish) racing starting in Lille, then flanks France’s northern coast on a ride across Normandy to Brittany. How strongly the wind blows or not off the English Channel will be determinate during this opening week.
The thing about a traditional Tour like this, where the first 10-days are for the rouleurs and sprinters, is that there are no climbs to deaden the legs of the flatlanders so that they are free to blast away to their heart’s content while the climbers suffer on the wheels, often entering the mountains already exhausted. Enter Mathieu van der Poel.
by extraordinary performances at the recent Dauphinè – and must certainly be envisioning a Yellow Jersey on these opening stages. His Alpecin-Deceuninck team of fast men will be on double duty, setting up Jasper Philipsen for the pure sprint stages, while VdP probes and pushes at the front, looking to break the race apart on his preferred terrain. Woe to the climbers if they wake up one day with the wind blowing hard from the Channel.
Stage 5 will be the first show of G.C. strength
I see the first days as a race between VdP and Remco Evenepoel to get to, or within striking distance of Yellow before the Stage 5 time trial in Caen, on a race course that is perfect for the Belgian World TT Champion. VdP will thus be looking for time over the first four days, while Remco should be trying to keep things contained until his special day on July 9th. That should prove a fascinating dynamic. Where Remco goes after that remains to be seen, whether he will still try for a good GC placing or accept his limits in the mountains and chase stages.
The final K of stage 18 of the 2022 Tour on the Hautacam – Vingegaard vs Pogacar.
On Stage 12, the climbers, beaten, bruised and abused by the first 10-days of high-speed, wind, road furniture, crashes, twists and turns, will finally enter their playground. Six of the ten remaining stages are in the high mountains, and what a collection of greatest hits await the racers: Hautacam, the Tourmalet (read the PEZ Top Ride here), Mt. Ventoux, a mountain time trial for goodness sakes, and we haven’t even reached the Alps where Col du Glandon, Col de la Madeleine, Courcheval are all lined up for our viewing pleasure. To note that every one of these stages – including the TT – are mountaintop finishes.
Stage 14 is classic Pyrenees – summiting the Tourmalet, Aspin, Peyresourdes and finally the climb to Super-Bagneres.
I am not ready to declare Tadej Pogačar the winner before the race has even started. Yes, he’s fantastic, the best we’ve seen in the modern era. However, he has compressed three seasons of efforts into this one when one considers how many races he has dominated over these past months. Perhaps all that effort will make him even stronger, perhaps the bill will come due during what will be, especially if this heat holds, a deeply exhausting Tour.
Matteo Jorgenson’s win at Paris-Nice is proof he’ll be an asset for Jonas.
Jonas Vingegaard was most impressive in the Dauphinè, his first race back from injury, finishing second in the TT behind Remco and second overall behind Pogačar. He rode steadily and calmly, looking for and finding the form needed for July. His Team Visma-Lease a Bike knows how to win Grand Tours. Look at what they did at the Giro and how they always have riders in the right spots at the right times on the crucial stages. They’ll be especially good during the first 10-days after which American’s Sepp Kuss and Matteo Jorgenson, plus Adam Yates will jump into action. That powerful, all terrain team support makes Vingegaard an absolute contender for this Tour de France.
Don’t count Primoz Roglič out just yet.
Of course there are other players to consider: can Primoz Roglič finally find form and make it through the flat races unscathed? Will his elegant teammate, Florian Lipowitz be able to step up if needed? Is all the Ineos faith and money put into Carlos Rodrìguez, now 24 so ready to perform, going to pan out? Who will be the best sprinter? That’s the thing about the Tour, there are three-weeks of storylines to follow, every day is an adventure, and nothing is certain (especially with the new design of the Paris stage) until the finish line on the Champs-Èlysèes.
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